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AZL Cubs Conclude 2010 Season With Victory
Mon, 08/30/2010 - 1:23amScoring a run in the bottom of the 7th to take the lead and then seven more in the bottom of the 8th to put the game away, the AZL Cubs closed out their 2010 Arizona League season by coasting past the AZL A's 11-4 at Dwight Patterson Field at HoHoKam Park in Mesa Sunday night.
RHP (and ex-3B) Charles Thomas made his second AZL game appearance as a pitcher in tonight's game, throwing one scoreless inning (16 pitches - 12 strikes) and striking out two (both swinging). Thomas is no stranger to the mound, having been used as a "two-way" combination 3B/RHRP at Edward Waters College prior to being selected by the Cubs in the 10th round of the 2009 Rule 4 Draft. At 6'4 230+, Thomas is a load. He looks a bit like Lee Smith, and he throws just about as hard, too. He has good command of the strike-zone and he looks like he knows what he's doing out there. The son of a high-ranking U. S. Naval officer, Thomas spent most of his first two seasons in pro ball playing 3B, where he hit 244/297/357 in 88 games (342 PA) combined between the AZL Cubs (2009) and Peoria (2010), before getting sent down to Mesa from Peoria and making the move to the mound about a month ago.
In AZL Cubs roster news, RHP Tarlandus Mitchell (groin strain) has completed his rehab with the AZL Cubs and has rejoined Boise. and RHP Dallas Beeler (2010 41st round draft pick out of Oral Roberts U.) and RHP (ex-C) Alvaro Sosa have been moved up to Boise from the AZL Cubs, with more promotions possible tomorrow, what with the AZL season having concluded while Boise continues to play for another week. Beeler had TJS in 2009 and hadn't pitched much when he was selected by the Cubs in a lower round in this past June's draft, but he got an "overslot" bonus ($150,000) to sign. From what I have seen of him, he can throw three pitches for strikes, and he's a lot more polished than I would have expected for a guy who missed so much time over the past year.
The AZL Cubs finished the 2010 season 26-29, good for third place in the AZL East, 8-1/2 games behind the 1st place AZL Giants. The AZL Giants will advance into the AZL playoffs, playing the AZL Reds (AZL Wild Card) in a one-game playoff tomorrow night in Scottsdale to determine which team advances to the AZL Championship game Tuesday night against the winner of tomorrow night's game pitting the AZL Rangers (AZL North champion) against the AZL Brewers (AZL West champs) in Maryvale.
The 2010 AZL Cubs were not your typical Cubs offensive unit, leading the AZL in walks(!) and finishing 3rd in batting average and 4th in stolen bases, but only 10th in triples, and 11th in doubles and Home Runs, in a twelve-team league. The 2010 AZL Cubs were the epitome of an "opportunistic" offense, using walks, stolen bases, bunts, opponent's errors and mistakes, and situational hitting to score runs in drips and drabs (and watching this team was a bit like watching paint dry, too). Tonight's game was a perfect example, as the Cubs took advantage of seven walks, four errors, five wild pitches, and a passed ball, combined with ten singles (and no extra-base hits), to plate 11 runs.
Cubs 2009 5th round pick SS Wes Darvill (Canadian Junior National Team - Langley BC) is the most improved player, and 2B Ping-Chieh Chen is the best player down here who hasn't been promoted to Boise. (Darvill actually was demoted from Boise to AZL Cubs in July, at which point he started to play with confidence), and I would expect the Cubs to move them along together, just as they are doing with Hak-Ju Lee and Logan Watkins. Oddly, Chen has a shortstop's range and a strong arm, but it's scatter-gun so it plays better at 2B. while Darvill has a Ryan Theriot type arm that would probably be a better fit at 2B, but Darvill just plays better and with more confidence when he plays SS. Like Logan Watkins, Chen is a slap hitter and an outstanding bunter, but he needs to work on his base-stealing technique. Darvill looks like he might develop some power as his body matures (he's not there yet, but he's only 18), but he already can steal bases with ease. Both Darvill and Chen are very patient hitters (especially Darvill), and both are not afraid to go deep in the count and take a walk.
Another player who improved a lot during the course of the AZL season is 3B Dustin Geiger (Cubs 2010 24th round pick out of Merritt Island HS - Brevard County, FL). Drafted as a RF after playing 3B in HS, Geiger insisted on being allowed to remain at 3B before he would sign (he had accepted a scholarship to Central Florida and was expected to be a "tough sign"), and it looks like he knows himself pretty well. He has very good reactions to balls hit to 3rd base, and he has a plus-arm (a real cannon), too. If Josh Vitters could play 3B as well as Geiger does right now, the Cubs would not even be thinking about moving him to 1B. Geiger looks like he could develop HR power eventually, because he has plus-bat speed (he just needs to learn to elevate his swing a bit and maybe turn on inside pitches). He could really benefit from the coaching he'll get at the AZ Instructional League.
RHP Austin Reed (2010 12th round pick out of Rancho Cucamonga HS - Rancho Cucamonga, CA) is probably the top pitching prospect who finished the AZL season in Mesa. Reed's older brother Addison is the #1 starter at San Diego State and most scouts figured Austin would follow his brother to SDSU out of HS, but the Cubs enticed him with an over-slot bonus, and it looks like they got a good one. Reed has problems with his mechanics from time-to-time, but when he's got his release point & arm slot in the right places, he has electric stuff and is virtually unhittable. Looks like he might be another another Nick Struck.
Cubs Post-2010 into 2011 Spring Training Roster Projections
Fri, 08/27/2010 - 11:48amThis is (of course) very much subject to change, but as things stand right now, here are the projected roster and payroll for the Cubs circa post-season 2010 into Spring Training 2011.
The Cubs already have $98.275M committed to nine players for 2011, and if they offer arbitration to all seven players who will eligible post-2010, that should add about another $15M to the 2011 payroll. NOTE: I do not pro-rate signing bonuses (spread the bonus out equally over the length of the contract) unless the bonus is actually paid-out that way.
With nine players signed for 2011 plus seven more eligible for salary arbitration post-2010, nine "auto-renewal" players would be needed to fill-out the Opening Day 25-man roster. These nine players would make the MLB minimum salary ($400K) or a bit more, and so that's about another $4M added to the 2011 payroll.
And then another $1M in payroll would be needed for players on the 40-man roster who are receiving a minor league split salary while on optional assignment to the minors, and that brings the estimated projected 2010 Cubs payroll to a grand total of approximately $118M.
That $118M does not include any payroll that might be allocated to signing free-agents from other clubs. It also does not address the actuial Cubs 2011 Payroll Budget, since that figure probably has not been determined yet, and once it is, it will be a closely-guarded secret.
What we do know is that the Cubs saved about $7M in 2010 payroll during the course of the 2010 season, by re-structuring and back-loading Ryan Dempster's contract, and trading Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, and Ryan Theriot, and some of that $7M in 2010 payroll savings might be applied toward the 2011 payroll.
I think it's likely that the Cubs will non-tender two players (possibly three) eligible for salary arbitration (Angel Guzman and Koyie Hill, and possibly Jeff Baker) on 12-12-2010, but that would only save the Cubs about $2M-$3M in 2011 payroll, bringing the projected grand total down to about $115M-$116M.
There are presently 40 players on the Cubs MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), plus one player (roster exemption) on the 60-day Disabled List. When MLB Active Lists expand from 25 to 40 players on September 1st, the Cubs will (barring a medical setback) reactivate RHP Carlos Silva (cardiac) and RHP Esmailin Caridad (elbow) from the 15-day Disabled List (both are presently on minor league rehab assignments), and, after the conclusion of the Pacific Coast League playoffs (the Iowa Cubs are in 1st place in their division), bring up somewhere around eight or nine players (most likely pitchers Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, Jeff Gray, Jeff Samardzija, Brian Schlitter, and Jeff Stevens, catcher Welington Castillo, and outfielders Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder) from the I-Cubs.
I think it's very possible that the Cubs will trade 1B-OF Xavier Nady (who will be an Article XX MLB free-agent post-2010) sometime before the post-season roster deadline midnight next Tuesday (8/31), and C Koyie Hill and IF-OF Jeff Baker (both eligible for salary arbitration post-2010) also could get traded, as contending clubs solidify their post-season rosters. If they aren't traded before the end of the season, both K. Hill and Baker would be 12/12 non-tender candidates, or one or both could even get outrighted to the minors in October (and if that happens, the player will almost certainly opt for free-agency).
Cubs minor leaguers eligible to be Rule 55 minor league free-agents post-2010 who are most-likely to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster over the next couple of months are C-IF Robinson Chirinos and OF Brad Snyder, with Snyder (who would be out of minor league options once he is added to an MLB 40-man roster) likely to get promoted to the big club in September to find out ASAP what he has to offer at the big league level.
Cubs minor leaguers eligible for selection in the December 2010 Rule 5 Draft who are most-likely to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster by the 11/20 deadline are RHP Chris Archer (lock), OF Brandon Guyer (virtual lock), 3B Marquez Smith (probable), and C-1B Steve Clevenger and IF-OF Matt Camp (possible), although it's unlikely that any of this group will get a ticket to Wrigley Field in September. (Archer will be pitching for the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, and Guyer and M. Smith are possible candidates to be assigned to the Solar Sox as well). Other candidates for the 40-man roster (especially pitchers) could emerge with an eye-popping performance in the AFL.
To make room for the new additions, at least four or possibly five players will need to be dropped from the 40-man roster post-2010, so it will be up to the ones "on the bubble" who get opportunities to pitch in the big leagues in September to have good showings. Possible candidates to get dropped from the 40 post-2010 include pitchers Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, John Gaub, Jeff Gray (will be out of options in 2011), Scott Maine, Marcos Mateo, Blake Parker, and Brian Schlitter, 1B Micah Hoffpauir (will be out of options in 2011), and outfielders James Adduci and Sam Fuld (will be out of options in 2011). Of this group, Atkins, Berg, Gray, Mateo, Hoffpauir, Adduci, and Fuld would be eligible to be Rule 55 minor league free-agents if outrighted to the minors prior to signing a 2011 MLB contract, and Maine is a Draft-Excluded Player (he can be outrighted to the minors up until the 4th day following the conclusion of the World Series, otherwise not until 20 days prior to 2011 MLB Opening Day). Generally speaking and all things being equal, players who cannot be minor league free-agents if outrighted to the minors are the ones most-likely to be placed on waivers, because if they are not claimed, they do not have the option to be a free-agent until after the 2011 season or beyond.
So AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, here is how the Cubs roster & payroll look post-2010 into Spring Training 2011...
ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX-B MLB FREE-AGENT POST-2010:
Xavier Nady, 1B-OF
Aramis Ramirez, 3B (player option)
NOTE: MLB players eligible to be free-agents under Article XX of the CBA can file for free-agency only during the “Free-Agency Filing Period” (first 15 days after conclusion of the World Series).
During the 15-day “Free-Agency Filing Period,” MLB clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own free-agents, although the other 29 MLB clubs can talk to the player about everything except money (they can discuss the benefits of playing in a particular city, how the player will be used, where the player will bat in the lineup or whether a pitcher will start or relieve, length of contract, no-trade rights, etc). Clubs then must decide by December 1st whether to offer salary arbitration to their own free-agents, and if they do offer salary arbitration, the player has until December 7th to accept or decline the offer.
If the club does offer salary arbitration to the free-agent and if the player is rated as a Type “A” or Type “B” free-agent, the player’s former club would receive one or two compensation draft picks in the next June’s Rule 4 Draft if the player signs with another club (two picks if the player is rated Type “A” and one pick if the player is rated Type “B”).
If the player’s former club does not offer salary arbitration on 12/1, the club can continue to negotiate with the player, but the club would not receive a compensation draft pick (or picks) if the player signs with another club.
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ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX-B MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2010 (1):
Mike Parisi, RHP
NOTE: A minor league player eligible to be an Article XX-B free-agent is not eligible for free-agency if the player is added back to his club’s 40—man roster by the end of the MLB regular season. Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own Article XX-B minor league free-agents through October 15th. An Article XX-B minor league free-agent is free to sign a major league or minor league contract with any club (including the player’s former club) after October 15th, and the player’s former club does not receive any compensation if the player signs with a new club.
ELIGIBLE TO BE RULE 55 MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2010 (16):
Adrian Aviles, OF-LHP (previously released by LAD)
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP (previously released by SEA)
Russ Canzler, IF-OF
Robinson Chirinos, C-INF
Jason Dubois, 1B-OF
Mark Johnson, C (player-coach)
Bryan Lahair, 1B-OF
Antoni Lugo, 3B (previously released by CHW)
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Scott McClain, 3B (player-coach)
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, C-INF
Alvaro Ramirez, OF (previously released by NYY)
Mark Reed, C
Bobby Scales, IF-OF
Brad Snyder, OF
NOTE: Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own minor league free-agents until the end of the MLB Free-Agency Filing Period. If a minor league player eligible to be a Rule 55 FA is added to his club’s 40-man roster no later than the fourth day following the conclusion of the World Series, the player is not eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league FA. Also, any minor league FA who signs (or re-signs) with the Cubs prior to 12-9-2010 would be eligible for selection in the 2010 Rule 5 Draft.
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ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2010 RULE 5 DRAFT (37):
Chris Archer, RHP
Ryan Buchter, LHP
Kyler Burke, OF
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Hung-Wen Chen, RHP
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Manolin DeLeon, RHP
Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF
Jose Guevara, C
Brandon Guyer, OF
Chris Huseby, RHP-OF
Dylan Johnston, RHP (ex-OF)
Blake Lalli, 1B-C
Casey Lambert, LHP
Jordan Latham, RHP
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
Oswaldo Martinez, RHP
Ronny Morla, RHP
Craig Muschko, RHP
Jake Muyco, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
David Patton, RHP
Andres Quezada, RHP
Chris Robinson, C
Nate Samson, INF
Chris Siegfried, LHP
Kyle Smit, RHP
Marquez Smith, 3B-2B
Luke Sommer, LHP
Alvaro Sosa, RHP (ex-C)
Matt Spencer, 1B
Larry Suarez, RHP
Tony Thomas, 2B
Jose Valdez, OF
Ty Wright, OF
NOTE: If a player on this list is added to an MLB 40-man roster by 11-20-2010, the player is not eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft.
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SIGNED FOR 2011 (9):
+ Player has NO TRADE rights
+ Alfonso Soriano - $18M
+ Carlos Zambrano - $17.875M
+ Ryan Dempster - $15M (contract was restructured)
+ Aramis Ramirez - $14.6M (player option)
+ Kosuke Fukudome - $13.5M
Carlos Silva - $6M (SEA pays $5.5M of Silva's $11.5M 2011 salary)
Marlon Byrd - $5.5M
John Grabow - $4.8M
+ Jeff Samardzija - $2.8M
2011 TOTAL: $98.275M
PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION POST-2010 (7):
Jeff Baker
Tom Gorzelanny
Angel Guzman
Koyie Hill
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
Geovany Soto
PROJECTED SUB-TOTAL: $15M
PROJECTED AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION) POST-2010 (24):
NOTE: 2011 MLB minimum salary will be $400K with a $65K minimum minor league “split salary” ($32.5K minimum “minor league split” for players with no MLB ST who are on 40-man roster for the first time). Also, a minor league split salary for an “auto-renewal” player must be at least 60% of what the player was actually paid in salary during the previous season.
James Adduci
Mitch Atkins
Darwin Barney
Justin Berg
Esmailin Caridad
Andrew Cashner
Welington Castillo
Starlin Castro
Casey Coleman
Tyler Colvin
Blake DeWitt
Thomas Diamond
Rafael Dolis
Sam Fuld
John Gaub
Jeff Gray
Micah Hoffpauir
Scott Maine
Marcos Mateo
Blake Parker
James Russell
Brian Schlitter
Jeff Stevens
Randy Wells
PROJECTED ESTIMATED SUB-TOTAL: $5M (includes estimated $1M in minor league split salaries for players on Optional Assignment)
CUBS ESTIMATED PROJECTED TOTAL MLB PAYROLL – OPENING DAY 2011: $118M+
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MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS (SPRING TRAINING 2011):
Players who have accrued at least five years of MLB Service Time can decline an Optional Assignment to the minors, even if they have options left. The following players will have accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2010 season. A player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time (Baker, Gorzelanny, A. Guzman, K. Hill, and Soto) or who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career (Diamond and Wells) can decline an outright assignment and opt for free-agency instead
NOTE: Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors, Blake DeWitt, Kosuke Fukudome, and Randy Wells would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors beginning on 3-31-2011, and Thomas Diamond would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before he can be optioned to the minors beginning on 4-17-2011.
NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:
Jeff Baker (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Sam Fuld
Tom Gorzelanny (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Jeff Gray
Angel Guzman (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Koyie Hill (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Micah Hoffpauir
Jeff Samardzija
Geovany Soto
ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT in 2011:
Mitch Atkins
Justin Berg
Blake DeWitt
Thomas Diamond (can decline Outright Assignment)
Sean Marshall (can decline Outright Assignment)
Carlos Marmol (can decline Outright Assignment)
Marcos Mateo
Jeff Stevens
Randy Wells (can decline Outright Assignment)
TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:
James Adduci
Welington Castillo
John Gaub
Blake Parker
Brian Schlitter
THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:
Darwin Barney
Esmailin Caridad
Andrew Cashner
Starlin Castro
Casey Coleman
Tyler Colvin
Rafael Dolis (see NOTE)
Kosuke Fukudome (can decline Trade or Outright Assignment, and probably has the right to decline an Optional Assignment, too)
Scott Maine
James Russell
NOTE: Dolis has used one minor league option, but he has three options remaining because he is eligible for a 4th minor league option, as long as it is used prior to the 2014 season.
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CUBS PROJECTED POST-2010 SEASON RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER):
* bats or throws left
# bats both
PITCHERS (25):
Mitch Atkins
Justin Berg
Esmailin Caridad
Andrew Cashner
Casey Coleman
Ryan Dempster
Thomas Diamond
Rafael Dolis
* Tom Gorzelanny
* John Grabow
Angel Guzman (likely 12/12 non-tender)
* John Gaub
Jeff Gray
* Scott Maine
Carlos Marmol
* Sean Marshall
Marcos Mateo
Blake Parker
* James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Brian Schlitter
Carlos Silva
Jeff Stevens
Randy Wells
Carlos Zambrano
CATCHERS (3):
Welington Castillo
# Koyie Hill (likely 12/12 non-tender)
Geovany Soto
INFIELDERS (6):
Jeff Baker (possible 12/12 non-tender)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
* Blake DeWitt
* Micah Hoffpauir
Aramis Ramirez (player option)
OUTFIELDERS (6):
* James Adduci
Marlon Byrd
* Tyler Colvin
* Kosuke Fukudome
* Sam Fuld
Alfonso Soriano
POST-2010 MLB ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENTS (1 or 2):
Xavier Nady, OF
Aramis Ramirez, 3B (player option)
TOP CANDIDATES FOR 40-MAN ROSTER POST-2010
1. Chris Archer, P
2. Brandon Guyer, OF
3. * Brad Snyder, OF
4. Robinson Chirinos, C-INF
5. Marquez Smith, 3B
6. * Steve Clevenger, C-1B
7. * Matt Camp, IF-OF
8. Alberto Cabrera, P
9. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, P
10. Craig Muschko, P
The Lee-Ramirez-Zambrano Cubs
Wed, 08/25/2010 - 9:40pmReader dcf (he of the Ron Santo for the Hall pieces from a few years back) stops by with a guest column on the Lee-Ramirez-Zambrano years
The August 18th trade of Derrek Lee to the Braves for three minor league pitching prospects represents not only the end of an era, but also the end (and to some extent the failure) of a long term strategy. For some time, the Cubs have built their team around three core players, Lee, Zambranoand Ramirez, allocating a large percentage of their available salary dollars to these players in long term contracts. This strategy has not yielded the results anyone would have hoped for.
On November 23, 2003, the Cubs acquired Lee from the Florida Marlins, that year’s World Series champion, for Mike Nannini and Hee-Seop Choi. Earlier that year, on July 23, 2003, the Cubs had acquired Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and cash from the Pirates for Matt Bruback, Jose Hernandez and a player to be named later (who turned out to be Bobby Hill). These were sound trades. At the time, Lee was 28 years old and Ramirez was 25. They joined a team which included a then-22-year-old Carlos Zambrano, who had been promoted from the Cubs’ farm system.
At the beginning of the 2006 season, the Cubs signed Lee, then 30 years old and coming off a monster year in 2005 (with a batting title and 99 extra-base hits), to a five year, $65 million contract; that contract replaced a three year $22.5 million contract signed in January, 2004. After the 2006 season, the Cubs signed Ramirez, then 28 years old, to a five year, $75 million contract (which includes a club option for a sixth year); that contract replaced a four year $42 million contract signed at the beginning of the 2005 season. After the 2007 season, the Cubs signed Zambrano, then 26 years old, to a five year, $91.5M contract (which includes a 2013 player vesting option).
The Cubs’ opening day payroll for the current year was $144.359 million. That amount represented the third highest team payroll in the majors, exceeded only by those of the Yankees and Red Sox, and the highest in the National League. The Cubs were committed to pay almost 54% of that amount ($77.625 million) to five players: Lee ($13 million), Ramirez ($15.75 million), Zambrano ($17.875 million), in addition to Alfonso Soriano ($18 million), signed after the 2006 season, and Kosuke Fukodome ($13 million), signed after the 2007 season, each of whom was added arguably to augment the existing Lee-Ramirez-Zambrano core. To put this figure in context, the amount the Cubs were committed to pay those five players was greater than the total opening day team payrolls of 12 major league clubs, including those of the Reds, Padres and Marlins. Approximately a third of their total 2010 opening day salary was committed to Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano.
So how well did this work? Over the last five years, when the decisions were made to extend long term contracts to these players, the results were mixed at best. On the one hand, the Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007 and 2008. On the other hand, the Cubs did not win a playoff game in either year, 2006 was a disaster, 2009 a disappointment, and 2010 a catastrophe. On the whole, however, I am of the view that the strategy was a decent one that, for various reasons, just did not work out, rather than being a poor strategy from its inception.
Some general observations:
1) Injuries have made a big difference. Lee and Ramirez have battled injuries this year which, despite Lee’s attempts not to use them as an excuse, seem to have negatively affected their performance. Lee’s severe wrist injury in 2006 cost him a lot of time that season and may have contributed to his relatively poor years in 2007 and 2008. Ramirez has not been a terribly durable player for the Cubs: he has missed extensive time this year, lost half the season in 2009 to a dislocated shoulder, and only played in 123 games in 2005 and 132 games in 2007. In fact, Ramirez has played in 150 games or more just three times since 2001 and just once with the Cubs. Zambranohas not had any one significant injury, but in 2008 and 2009 had his lowest number of games started, and lowest numbers of innings pitched, since his rookie year. He had rotator cuff tendinitis in 2008, and a pulled hamstring and lower back pain (and an epidural) at separate times in 2009. His disciplinary (and anger management) issues this year do not fall within the category of “injury” but have caused significant time off.
2) The Level of Performance has fallen short of expectations. I would argue that none of these players has consistently performed at a level that the Cubs would have expected given the amount of their salaries, even if you discount the poor years that all of them are having in 2010. None of them has been among the best players in the league or in baseball at his position since signing their large contracts. Lee was an MVP candidate in 2005. He has not been one since. Even in 2009, which was his best year since 2006, he ranked behind Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder in WAR and behind Pujols, Fielder and Votto in OPS. In 2007, he was behind Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Dunn, Helton and Howard in OPS. In 2008, he was 10th among NL first basemen in OPS.
During the five years prior to his big contract following the 2007 season, Zambrano went 77-45 with an ERA of 3.30 and an ERA+ of 136. Over that period, he threw 1077 innings, averaged 33 starts a year and had a WAR of 22.2. Since his 2007 contract, he’s gone 27-19 with a 4.08 ERA and an ERA+ of 111. He started 30 games in 2008, 28 in 2009 and only has 13 starts this year. His aggregate WAR over that period is 5.9.
In the four years prior to Ramirez’s 2006 deal, he had an aggregate WAR of 11.8. Since then, his aggregate WAR is 9. Ramirez had good years in both 2007 and 2008, but David Wright and Chipper Jones were both better at the plate in each of those years.
So what did the Cubs expect? Well, Zambrano is the fourth highest paid starting pitcher in baseball by average annual value, behind only Sabathia, Santana and Halladay. Ramirez is the second highest paid third baseman in baseball by average annual value, behind only A-Rod. Lee is the eighth highest paid first baseman. (For all salary rankings, see http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/05/most-lucrative-contracts.html; I disregarded Cabrera’s ranking as third baseman and listed him at first). In all of these instances, there are players at the same position well below these three in terms of salary that have out-performed them. Ramirez has been a good player, and a relatively consistent performer when he has been in the line-up, but has not been consistently one of the best at his position, which is what the Cubs are paying him to be. Lee and Zambrano have done worse than Ramirez has against their position peers.
3) Was the Strategy Sound? Hindsight is 20-20, but I believe that the strategy of building a team around Lee, Ramirez and Zambranowas a decent decision that has gone horribly awry due to circumstances that were not reasonably foreseeable. If you had the chance to build your team around two power-hitting corner infielders and a number one starter, would you do it? The Cubs went for it.
At the time these contracts were signed, all were under 30 years of age. While injury is to some extent an occupational hazard of all athletes, Lee’s severe injury in 2006 was simply unlucky. Zambrano was a horse with perhaps high mileage on him, but was a true number one starter that had consistently taken the ball and won. It is true that Ramirez had a somewhat checkered injury history at the time he signed his last contract, but he had been a consistent power hitter.
I would argue that it was not reasonably foreseeable that all three players would have simultaneously played as badly as they have in 2010.
4) The Downside. To some extent, the performance of Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano illustrate a risk inherent in a strategy like the Cubs’. When you commit guaranteed high-dollar contracts to people that don’t perform, particularly a number of people that don’t perform, you have severely limited options. Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano have been essentially replacement level (or slightly above) all year long and the Cubs have not been able to replace the lost production. As noted above, over half of the Cubs’ payroll was allocated to these three players plus Fukudome and Soriano, who also have not set the world ablaze this year.
5) What to do next? A lot may depend on whether Ramirez and Zambrano can rebound and have decent years. That’s a lot to hope for. Their contracts are such that it may be difficult to move them without the Cubs agreeing to defray salary.
The other thing that the Cubs could do is look to add players through free agency using the salary flexibility that they have obtained by moving the Lee and Lilly contracts off their books. The committed dollars for 2011 look like this: Soriano $19 million; Zambrano $18.875 million; Ramirez, $14.6 million; Fukudome $14.5 million; Dempster $14.5 million; Silva $12.75 million (with Seattle paying $5.5 million); Byrd $5.5 million; Samardzija $3.5 million; and Grabow $4.8 million. That’s $102.525 million. Of the remaining players, the contracts of the following arbitration-eligible players are up: Marmol (currently at $2.125 million), Marshall ($950G), Soto ($575G), Baker ($975G), Gorzelanny($800G), Guzman ($825G) and Hill ($700). Colvin ($401G), Wells ($427G) and DeWitt $410G) have contracts expiring but are not arbitration-eligible. It depends on what the Cubs’ appetite is, but they could add players. Whether they can add the right ones remains to be seen.
Mike Quade Era Starts With A Bang, Will Surely End with a Whimper
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:46pmThe Cubs came out thumping last night for their new manager knocking out 15 hits and taking 6 walks, 3 of them by Soto as they pitched around him in the 8th spot. The last time the Cubs had an interim manager it was 2002 and the job went to Bruce Kimm (with Rene Lachemann getting one game before Kimm took over). The Cubs responded well that first game for Kimm, winning 7-3 over the Braves, but he ended up going 33-45 on the year, nearly identical to Baylor who was 34-49 before being fired.
You have to go to 1991 for the next mid-season firing, when Don Zimmer got canned after going 18-19 and once again a one game gig was given to bridge the gap, but this time to Joe Altobelli before Jim Essian took over. If my math is right, the Cubs won that game as well for Essian, a 5-2 win over the Mets thanks to Greg Maddux, but Essian didn't fare much better than Zimmer did for the rest of the season finishing with a 59-63 record.
Some other interim manager results since 1970 for the Cubs.
1987 - Frank Lucchesi (8-17), lost first game to Pirates 4-1. Replaced Gene Michael (68-68).
1986 - Gene Michael (46-56), lost first game to Cardinals 1-0. Replaced Jim Frey (23-33).
1983 - Charlie Fox(17-22) , won first game 2-0 over Reds. Replaced Lee Elia (54-69).
1980 - Joey Amalfitano (26-46), lost first game 14-6 to Giants. Replaced Preston Gomez (38-52).
1979 - Joey Amalfitano (2-5), lost first game 3-1 to Mets. Replaced Herman Franks who resigned (78-77).
1974 - Jim Marshall (25-44), lost first game 10-2 to the Phillies. Replaced Whitey Lockman (41-52).
1972 - Whitey Lockman (39-26), lost first game 6-5 to the Astros. Replaced Leo Durocher (46-44).
Kimm nor Essian got to keep the job the following year and I'm sure the same will happen for Quade unless the team goes on a crazy hot streak to finish the year. Gene Michael was the last interim manager to keep the job after the '86 season although he didn't even make it through the '87 season. Amalfitano did get a chance in the strike shortened '81 season but with poor results. Marshall stayed through 1976 before being replaced by Herman Franks in 1977 and Whitey Lockman stayed on for 1973 and part of 1974.
Quade's big move for tonight against the lefty Lannan is to move Soto up to the 6th spot, offsetting that inspirational move by batting Jeff Baker 5th and playing him in RF. Dewitt stays in the leadoff spot after going 3/5 with a HR and a 2B. Byrd sits after being hit in the hand yesterday and leaving the game early.
DeWitt 2B, Castro SS, Nady 1B, Ramirez 3B, Baker RF, Soto C, Soriano LF, Colvin CF, Zambrano P
And Justin Berg has been optioned to Iowa, lefty Scott Maine has been recalled (acquired in the offseason in a deal for Aaron Heilman).
The Second Coming of Bill Madlock?
Mon, 08/23/2010 - 1:26pmThis topic doesn't really merit a full post, but the site won't allow me to reply directly to inquiries aimed my way about Marquez Smith so I took another route in.
I've assembled a hodgepodge of data about Mr. Smith and pasted it below. He's been on a tear of late and helped keep the team afloat at the top of the PCL standings while many of his teammates have been called up to sink their parents toward the bottom of the NL Central. There's a link to a recent feature in the Des Moines Register, a clip from a recent edition of I-Cub game notes summarizing his hot streak, an excerpt from those same notes that shows the team has a much better record with Matt Camp at 3rd than Smith [FWIW], a "scouting report" from his former coach at Clemson [wasn't he a teammate of Colvin's there?] who extols his defensive abilities and a stat line from his brief demotion to Tennessee in the spring where he really did nothing to merit a recall to Triple A. I can't remember the circumstances of his return to Des Moines, but he has certainly capitalized on the renewed opportunity. As for AZP's estimation of former third-sackers Smith might ultimately equate to, why not shoot for the moon and invoke the memory of Bill Madlock? He's built along the same lines as I remember Madlock, although Mad Dog's listed in stat archives at a mere 180 lbs., substantially fewer than Marquez is pulling around behind him. Smith is a low center of gravity guy which might lend itself to the dives so often called for at the corner. When I've seen him he has impressed at the plate and not really done anything one way or another to draw my scrutiny as a fielder.
Will Clemson have the Cub infield cornered in 2012?
ON THE MARQ: With two more hits last night, 3B Marquez Smith extended his season-high hitting streak to 10 games and has hit safley his last 12 starts. In those 12 games, Smith is batting .512 (22-for-43) with 15 runs scored, five doubles, nine home runs and 20 RBI. He has hit nine home runs in his last 14 games. For the month of August, Smith leads the league in batting (.429), home runs (9), slugging (1.00), and OPS (1.492). He is tied for the league lead with Mat Gamel of Nashville with 14 extra-base hits and tied with Jason Lane of Las Vegas with 56 total bases. He is second in the league with 21 RBI (Bret Pill of Fresno has 22) and in on-base percentage (.492).
Marquez Smith Tennessee 5/15-6/3 .182 16 44 8 8 2 0 3 5 5 13 0 0 1
Smith 58 (31-27), Camp 34 (23-11),
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=20108230312
"Marquez is one of the better third-baseman, certainly in the ACC and maybe in the country. He played a lot last year as our third-baseman. His fielding percentage, consistency, and accuracy are all outstanding. He has great hands and is going to hit in the middle of the order. He's a great team player, and he's one of the keys to our success."
Medical Sabermetrics
Sun, 08/22/2010 - 9:35amMAJOR NEWS UPDATE:
Lou Piniella will resign after today's game vs Atlanta. His mother's health has not improved and instead of going the medical leave of absence route again, he's handing over the managerial chores to...THE FORMER IOWA CUB MANAGER... drumroll, please...[[[Mike Quade]]]. Pfffft.
There is a segment of the news reporters who actually cover medical meetings and try their hand at using medical lingo on their readers. I found this article online (and several other sources picked it up including the LA Times) but it originates from a news feed that the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine provided after their 2010 annual meeting from Providence, RI.
This is clearly an epidemiologic study. I'm thinking medical sabermetrics is a better term.
The study was based on data from MLB's disabled list published online data from 2002-2008, so it didn't really need a doctor to do this, it probably was done by a doctor who is a baseball junkie. Hmmm.
Dr. (and Major) Matthew Posner took the raw information and tabulated the frequency and distribution of injuries by anatomic site, position, AL vs NL and time of season (before or after the All-Star break). Nicely done. Clean and simple.
"Even though baseball is a passion of many people and our national pastime, there is very little information about the epidemiology, characteristics or distribution of injuries in Major League Baseball,” said Maj., Matthew Posner, MD, orthopaedic surgeon at the William Beaumont Army Medical Center in El Paso, Texas. “This study attempts to evaluate Major League injuries over the period of six years.”
On to Dr. Posner's findings after the jump...
The raw data:
•3,072 players were placed on the disabled list from the 2002 season through 2008, an average of 438.9 per year.•The high during the period was 516 in 2008, and the low was 388 in 2005.
The major findings: Arms>Legs>Backs>Core (ribs/abdomenals)
•51.4% of all injuries during the period were to the upper extremities. •30.6% were to lower extremities. •7.4% were back injuries. •4.3% were injuries to core muscles.Next finding, pitchers are fragile: D'oh, but impressive considering there is an 8:1 ratio of fielders:pitchers during games. Of course some injuries don't happen during games (see Clint Barmes inury). I'd love to see stats for catchers or a breakdown of fielders who get injured batting or baserunning. The catcher data was apparently, not in the study. The batting/baserunning data would take a little more research outside of a DL list.
•Pitchers spent a greater proportion of days on the disability list, 62.4%, compared to 37.6% for fielders.The obvious is verified, but now it's quantified: Pitchers tend to hurt their arms!
•Pitchers accounted for 67% of upper extremity injuries, compared tofielders, who had more lower extremity injuries and injuries to other
regions. •Fielders had a greater proportion of lower extremity injures, 47.5% compared to 16.9% for pitchers.
NL vs AL: Identical patterns.
•National League players injured their upper extremities 51.7 percent ofthe time, lower extremities 30.7 percent and other anatomic regions 17.7
percent. •American League players injured their upper extremities 51.1 percent of
the time, lower extremities 30.5 percent and other anatomic regions 18.4
percent, according to the study.
Timing of Injury: Mostly before the All-Star Break (74.4%)
•79% of shoulder and elbow injuries happened before the All-Star Break •74.8% of the other injuries (groin, hamstrings, quads, trunk/core)before the A-S game. •Pitchers sustained 76.5% and fielders sustained 71.7% of their total respective injuries prior to the All-Star game.
I just might be crazy enough to build on Dr. Posner's work and do a Cub specific review of that readily available DL data (sounds like an off season project...although this entire season has been an off-season). That should be interesting in light of these published league norms to compare to.
I have followed Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll epidemiologic (medical sabermetrics?) work. He gives out the now annual Dick Martin Award to the best team medical staff (last recipient was the Phillies, Cubs now in the top one-third!). In a previous TCR article, The Cubs Trainer vs. The Secretive Nature of the Industry, I detailed the Cubs head trainer (yes, he works on all body parts), Mark O'Neal in the context of the BP Dick Martin award. I also wrote about the 2010 Cubs in the context of Will Carroll's health report ratings and the data that he tracks, Running a Yellow Light.
Baseball prospectus posted an excellent chart for the 2009 season, days lost to injury (sabermetrically speaking, D-LOIN?) vs salary lost, as a percentage of total team payroll (S-LOIN?).
The award is based on a number of factors, including but not limited to quantitative measures such as days lost to the DL, dollars lost to the DL, percentage of payroll lost to the DL, and year-over-year improvements and trends regarding these numbers.
Here's BP's charts for the 2004 and 2005 seasons. The Cubs were in the bottom half back then. It was in the black hole center of the Wood/Prior days.
Maybe that's one more thing Tom Ricketts should put on Ari Kaplan's To-Do list (Ricketts hired Kaplan as Cub manager of statistical analysis this past June).
Roger Clemens indicted for allegedly being a big fat steroid-taking liar!
Fri, 08/20/2010 - 10:17pm(Click on image for full size version)
If you were a baseball player, there are words and phrases you just don't want in the same sentence as your name. Words and phrases like: "federal grand jury", "indicted", "lying to Congress", and of course, "steroids" and "growth hormone".
And yet there it is: "A federal grand jury on Thursday indicted seven-time Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens for allegedly lying to Congress about using steroids and growth hormone."
Awesome.
There's an old joke I've never told out loud because... well, I'm terrible at telling jokes. But I found it online:
A Scottish old timer in Scotland, in a bar, talking to a young man.
The Old Man says, "Lad, look out there to the field. Do ya see that fence? Look how well it's built. I built that fence stone by stone with me own two hands. I piled it for months."
"But do they call me McGreggor-the-Fence-Builder? Nooo..."
Then the old man gestured at the bar. "Look here at the bar. Do ya see how smooth and just it is? I planed that surface down by me own achin' back. I carved that wood with me own hard labour, for eight days."
"But do they call me McGreggor-the-Bar-builder? Nooo..."
Then the old man points out the window. "Eh, Laddy, look out to sea...Do ya see that pier that stretches out as far as the eye can see? I built that pier with the sweat off me back. I nailed it board by board."
"But do they call me McGreggor-the-Pier-Builder? Nooo..."
Then the old man looks around nervously, trying to make sure no one else is paying attention.
"But ya fuck one goat..."
This the exact same story that Roger wrote for himself with his own actions and mouth.
Now, his nickname won't be as simple as McGreggor's.
It'll probably have a bunch of asterisks and hyphens, wouldn't you think?
Roger that.
You can view Tim Souers work on a daily basis at Cubby Blue.
The Derrek Lee Era
Thu, 08/19/2010 - 1:01amWith Derrek Lee's departure to the South and front running Braves, the Cubs lost one of their finest players over the last 30 years. But just how fine was he?
I think we can agree that since 1980 (arbitrary cutoff by me, live with it) that Ryne Sandberg and Sammy Sosa are your top two Cubs depending on how much you want to dock Sosa for his alleged indiscretions. That leaves a quartet of Cubs vying for spots 3-7 among position players: Mark Grace, Andre Dawson, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee.
Let's go to the HTML table:
WAR is Fangraphs all-encompassing stat, WARP is Baseball Prospectus version and after the slash is their average wins per season.
Player Years as Cub WAR as Cub WARP3 as Cub Grace 13 46.1/3.54 48.3/3.71 Lee 6.7525.2/3.73 24.2/3.58 Ramirez 7.25 26.8/3.70 22.8/3.14 Dawson 6 18.1/3.02 18.1/3.02
The Hall of Famer trails the pack clearly and I think you have to give Grace the number three spot thanks to longevity and his per season numbers are in the vicinity of Lee and Ramirez. Aramis still gets the rest of the year and most likely next to improve upon his numbers, but Derrek Lee did easily have one of the best Cubs' seasons of all-time in 2005.
I'd probably give the nod to Ramirez over Lee for fourth, based on nothing more than clutchiness or at least perceived clutchiness on my part. Ramirez did seem to be the guy to get all the big hits over the years while Lee seemed like the guy to ground into a double play at the worst of the times. I'm sure that's more perception than reality, but I'm damn glad both were around for nearly a decade. It didn't end well for Lee and the Cubs and us fans, but baseball marriages rarely do. A proper retrospective on Lee will need some time and the perspective gained with it, but I sure hope he goes down in the Cubs' history books as one of the best.
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF Awards 2004 28 CHC NL 161 688 605 90 168 39 1 32 98 12 5 68 128 .278 .356 .504 .860 117 305 14 8 2 5 2005 29 CHC NL 158 691 594 120 199 50 3 46 107 15 3 85 109 .335 .418 .662 1.080 174 393 12 5 0 7 AS,MVP-3,GG,SS 2006 30 CHC NL 50 204 175 30 50 9 0 8 30 8 4 25 41 .286 .368 .474 .842 112 83 11 0 0 4 2007 31 CHC NL 150 650 567 91 180 43 1 22 82 6 5 71 114 .317 .400 .513 .913 130 291 15 9 0 3 AS,GG 2008 32 CHC NL 155 698 623 93 181 41 3 20 90 8 2 71 119 .291 .361 .462 .823 108 288 27 0 0 4 MVP-21 2009 33 CHC NL 141 615 532 91 163 36 2 35 111 1 0 76 109 .306 .393 .579 .972 145 308 12 3 0 4 MVP-9 2010 34 CHC NL 109 475 418 63 105 21 0 16 56 1 3 52 101 .251 .335 .416 .751 94 174 16 2 0 3 CHC (7 yrs) 924 4021 3514 578 1046 239 10 179 574 51 22 448 721 .298 .378 .524 .903 128 1842 107 27 2 30 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 8/18/2010.
179 HR's as a Cub ranks him 11th all-time, 574 RBI's is 29th, 578 Runs in 33rd and his .378 OBP is 9th.
Derrek Lee to Braves?
Wed, 08/18/2010 - 3:14pmUPDATE by Rob G: The deal is done and the Cubs get RHP Robinson Lopez (age 19), LHP Jeffrey Lorick (age 22, 20th round pick in 2009) and RHP Tyrelle Harris (age 23, 19th round pick in 2009). I bumped this up top, but be sure not to miss Arizona Phil's 2010 Rule 4 draft update below this post.
In today's installment of "Who Can We Pawn Off On The NL East Leaders?" we pass along word from David Kaplan (@thekapman) that the Cubs and Braves are "very close" on a deal that would move Derrek Lee to Atlanta. Kaplan says the deal "should get done later today."
Sorry to hear that D-Lee could be operating out of the first-base dugout this weekend when the Braves visit Wrigley? This will cheer you up.
2010 Rule 4 Draft Deadline Update
Wed, 08/18/2010 - 11:41amThe deadline for signing HS, JC, and college players (other than seniors) selected in this past June's Rule 4 Draft has past, as the Cubs announced the signing of four draft picks (RHP Ben Wells, RHP Kevin Rhoderick, LHP Casey Harman, and LHP Brian Smith) prior to the midnight deadline on Monday.
In total, the Cubs signed 29 of their 50 draft picks, just about the usual number they sign each year. In addition, the Cubs signed four Non-Drafted Free-Agents (NDFA) to provide depth at Mesa and Boise.
Here are the 2010 draft picks and Non-Drafted Free-Agents (NDFA) who were signed by the Cubs, and those who the Cubs were not able to sign. The highest draft pick to get away was 6th round pick OF Ivan DeJesus, who will be attending UAB. NOTE: The 8/15 deadline does not apply to college seniors selected in last month's draft, but the Cubs signed all of the college seniors they drafted.
2010 RULE 4 DRAFT PICKS SIGNED (29):
1. HAYDEN SIMPSON, RHP (Southern Arkansas) – at AZL Cubs (60-day DL - illness)
2. REGGIE GOLDEN, OF (Wetumpka HS – Wetumpka, AL) – at AZL Cubs
3. MICAH GIBBS, C (LSU) - at BOISE
4. HUNTER ACKERMAN, LHP (Louisburg JC) – at AZL Cubs
5. MATT SZCZUR, OF (Villanova) – TEMPORARILY INACTIVE LIST (will be playing college football at Villanova)
7. BEN WELLS, RHP (Bryant HS – Bryant, AR) – NOT ASSIGNED YET
8. CAM GREATHOUSE, LHP (Gulf Coast CC) – at BOISE
9. KEVIN RHODERICK, RHP (Oregon State) - NOT ASSIGNED YET
10. AARON KURCZ, RHP (College of Southern Nevada) – at BOISE
11. ERIC JOKISCH, LHP (Northwestern) – at BOISE
12. AUSTIN REED, RHP (Rancho Cucamonga HS – Rancho Cucamonga, CA) – at AZL Cubs
13. PIERRE LePAGE, 2B (Connecticut) – at BOISE
14. COLIN RICHARDSON, RHP (Winter Haven HS – Winter Haven, FL) – at AZL Cubs
15. ELLIOT SOTO, SS (Creighton) – at BOISE
16. RYAN HARTMAN, RHP (Mt. Zion HS - Mt. Zion, IL) – at AZL Cubs
19. DUSTIN FITZGERALD, RHP (Hill JC) – at BOISE
20. RYAN CUNEO, 1B (Delaware) – at BOISE
22. JEFF VIGURS, C (Bryant U.) – at BOISE
23. MATT LOOSEN, RHP (Jacksonville U.) – at BOISE
24. DUSTIN GEIGER, 3B (Merritt Island HS - Brevard County, FL) – at AZL Cubs
25. ERIC RICE, RHP (Palm Beach State CC) – at BOISE
28. JOE ZELLER, RHP (The Master’s College) – at AZL Cubs
29. CASEY HARMAN, LHP (Clemson) - NOT ASSIGNED YET
32. BRENT EBINGER, LHP (Lambuth U.) – at BOISE
34. DUSTIN HARRINGTON, INF (East Carolina) – at BOISE
37. CHAD NOBLE, C (Northwestern) – at AZL Cubs
40. BRIAN SMITH, LHP (St. Mary’s Catholic SS – Pickering, ON) – NOT ASSIGNED YET
41. DALLAS BEELER, RHP (Oral Roberts) – at AZL Cubs
49. BRYCE SHAFER, RHP (Valparaiso) - at AZL Cubs
2010 NON-DRAFTED FREE-AGENTS (NDFA) SIGNED (ALL WERE COLLEGE SENIORS):
DOUG CHERRY, 2B (U. of Washington) - at AZL Cubs (Inactive)
ANTHONY GIANSANTI, OF (Siena) - at PEORIA
MAX KWAN, C (U. of Washington) - NOT ASSIGNED YET
JAKE McALOOSE, IF-OF (Old Dominion) - at AZL Cubs
=============================================
2010 DRAFT PICKS NOT SIGNED - THE ONES WHO GOT AWAY:
6. IVAN DeJESUS, CF (Cupeyville School – San Juan, PR) – will attend UAB
17. STEVEN BROOKS, CF (Wake Forest)
18. BROOKS PINCKARD, RHP/OF (Baylor)
21. CODY COX, RHP (Grassfield HS – Chesapeake, VA) – will attend Old Dominion
26. DANNY MUNO, SS (Fresno State)
27. BRYAN HARPER, LHP (College of Southern Nevada) – will transfer to U. of South Carolina
30. KARSTEN STRIEBY, 1B (Arizona Western JC)
31. BENITO SANTIAGO, Jr, 1B (Lon Morris JC)
33. MATT STITES, RHP (Jefferson CC) – will transfer to U. of Missouri
35. CHRIS ANDERSON, RHP (Centennial HS – Blaine, MN) – will attend Jacksonville U.
36. TYLER BREMER, RHP (Yavapai JC) – will transfer to Baylor
38. JEREMY FITZGERALD, RHP (Patrick Henry CC)
39. CASEY LUCCHESE, RHP (College of Charleston)
42. TREY NIELSEN, RHP (Skyline HS – Salt Lake City, UT) – will attend U. of Utah
43. DANNY WINKLER, RHP (Parkland JC) – will transfer to Central Florida
44. JAKE ROGERS, 1B (St. Petersburg CC)
45. DEVON AUSTIN, C (Couer D’Alene HS – Couer D’Alene, ID) – will attend New Mexico State
46. JERAD EICKHOFF, RHP (Olney Central CC)
47. CLAYTON CRUM, RHP (Klein HS – Harris County, TX) – will attend U. of Texas
48. ERIC PAULSON, 3B (Fremd HS – Palatine, IL) – will attend Bradley U.
50. ERIC JAGIELO, SS (Downers Grove North HS – Downers Grove, IL) – will attend Notre Dame
Braves Targeting Aramis
Mon, 08/16/2010 - 11:18pmThat's the story on NBC Sports citing Talking Chop of SB Nation, which isn't what I'd call a go-to news source. But alas it's out there and if the Braves do put in a waiver claim, I'd like to hope Hendry just lets him go to the Braves and saves the money for the rest of this year and most likely next. Granted, Aramis still has a a NTC and would have to approve the deal even if the Cubs just let the waiver claim go through, but it would take the Cubs off the hook for 2011 on the assumption that Aramis was going to exercise his option.
Not much else going on, nice little weekend of playing spoiler to the Cardinals by taking two out of three, but they couldn't keep the momentum going today against the first place Padres. Gorz pitched well for six innings, but then the 7th happened and then the bullpen and the Cubs stayed within a half game of the 5th pick in the 2011 draft. After the game, Lou felt the need to vent about the young pitchers whose names he'll forget by Day 2 of his retirement.
The signing deadline for the 2010 draft came and went on Monday and according to Cubs.com, the Cubs signed 29 of their 50 picks, 15 of their top 16 picks and 21 of their top 25. The top holdout was 6th round pick Ivan Dejesus (standard disclaimer that he's not related to that Ivan Dejesus).
According to tweets by Chicago Cubs Online, Oneri Fleita mentioned ont he radio that Chris Archer, Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters will be 3 of the Cubs heading to the Arizona Fall League with Vitters getting time at 3b and 1b. The Cubs will send 2-4 more players when they make their official announcement later this month.
UPDATE: As I noted, Talking Chop should not be your go-to news source as just about everyone with the Braves is dismissing the idea.
Game Preview: Cubs (48-67) @ Cardinals (64-49)
Fri, 08/13/2010 - 5:18pmDerrek Lee is back, Hoffpauir gets sent back down...okay, why not?
With Soto on the DL, Aramis still out, Colvin in the penalty box and Soriano incapable of moving spots in the batting order without the Earth's magnetic fields being reversed, we get to witness the following lineup featuring Blake DeWitt batting 5th.
Fukudome, Castro, Lee, Byrd, DeWitt, Soriano, Barney, Hill, Diamond
vs.
F. Lopez, J. Jay, Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, Molina, Schumaker, Westbrook, Ryan
In happier news, Castro is just 17 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting title race, in which he'd currently be third, just two points behind Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.
Cubs get to play the role spoilers this weekend or more likely the role of roadkill. Happy weekend everyone!
Game Preview: The Hapless Cubs vs. The Surging Giants
Thu, 08/12/2010 - 10:57amThe things you miss not caring about this team...
The Little Cajun That Could was traded to the Giants yesterday for speedy center fielder Evan Crawford. The two reports I read on him are hardly flattering...beyond his speed.
In terms of pitch selection, Crawford is not afraid to work deep counts. However, I’d attribute this more to laying off all offspeed offerings to hide a weakness and not good pitch selection. Crawford looks for the first decent fastball middle-in and tries to yank it down the line. When he’s forced to fight off pitches with two strikes, I’ve seen curveballs make him look silly in the box.
Considering it was a waiver wire deal, you can't expect much to receive much for Mike Fontenot anyway. Darwin Barney has been called up to take Fontenot's spot on the roster.
Geovany Soto went to the disabled list and Derrek Lee is tending to his grandfather, paving the way for Micah Hoffpauir and Welington Castillo to get called up.
All of this was news to me this morning.
The Cubs are currently the proud owners of the 7th spot in the draft and just 2.5 games from the 4th spot, with a little work I think they could even manage to catch the Mariners for the third spot.
As for today's game, the power hitting, but OBP challenged Colvin is leading off, it's like those two two plus years of Soriano in the leadoff spot never happened: lf colvin, ss castro, rf fuke, cf byrd, 1b nady, 2b dewitt, 3b baker, c hill, p wells
One last piece of fun, Cubs OBI%(Other Baserunners Driven In) this year via Baseball Prospectus. It really should be the go-to stat when folks talk about driving in runners. If I ever accomplish anything with this blog, it will be making this stat more widely accepted and known. The best in the league will be in the low 20's and anything in the 15-17% range is acceptable to good and just like BABIP or many of the rate stats out there, it does fluxuate widely from year to year, but the power hitters who can put the ball in play will tend to be more consistent from year-to-year. For comparison, here's the Cubs in 2008.
16.3%
Soto
16%
Soriano 15.7%
Ramirez 15.3%
Lee 14.3%
Byrd
13.9%
Fukudome
13.4%
Nady 12.9%
Colvin
12.0%
Theriot
10.4% Baker 9.6%
The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer. I know, nothing ground-breaking in terms of information, but still fascinatingly inept to witness.
Lou Piniella RANT
Tue, 08/10/2010 - 10:46amYeah, we're all pretty sick of the 2010 Cubs. But just for a moment, imagine being Lou Piniella.
Close your eyes and just... imagine having to walk into the little "how come" room and explain this team to the media.
It has to be the absolute worst kind of hell.
Seriously, if you made a movie and had to depict hell, what better place than that little room? Day after day after day...
Now, I don't know exactly what he's thinking, but I would imagine it would be something close to this.
I'd give a million bucks to have a beer with the man, hear it for real...
You can view Tim Souers work on a daily basis at Cubby Blue.
TCR Friday Notes
Fri, 08/06/2010 - 11:02amThe site is broken.
The Cubs are broken.
I'm swamped.
The Friday beatdown lineup, yep, Soto batting 8th.
LF Colvin, SS Castro, 1B Lee, 3B Ramy, CF Byrd, RF Fukudome, 2B DeWitt, C Soto, P Gorzelanny
Brewers Beat Cubs and Suddenly, Ron Santo Seems Quite Articulate
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 8:50pmThings have gotten so bad with the Cubs that Ron Santo's heavy sighs and plaintive wails and exclamations of "C'mon!" and "No!" actually capture precisely the way I now feel while listening to or watching the action.
Tuesday night the Cubs fell to a season-worst 15 games under .500, losing their seventh in a row, 4-3, to the Brewers. (Lest we forget, the Brewers had lost five in a row before this series began.)
Thomas Diamond, the starting and losing pitcher for the Cubs, was making his first Major League start and wound up tying Mark Prior's franchise record for strikeouts by a pitcher making his Cub debut with 10. Diamond also managed to keep the Cub bullpen on the sidelines until the 7th inning, throwing 122 pitches in the process, which was the highest pitch count by a player making his first MLB appearance since 2001.
The Cub offense provided the usual mix of flat-out failure—1-for-11 with RISP—and comic ineptitude. The game essentially ended right after Starlin Castro drove in Mike Fontenot with the Cubs' third run in the final inning. Castro slipped while trying to stretch his single into a double and was thrown out in a rundown between first and second. Derrek Lee then fanned for the final out.
Aside from dropping seven games in a row, the Cubs have now gone 49 innings without even having a lead.
Lilly Declining? Wallach Decent? Looking at the Deal
Sat, 07/31/2010 - 10:37pmNow that the trade deadline is behind us, what are Cub fans supposed to pay attention to? The games?! I tried that earlier tonight, and I'm sorry I did.
— I heard a recorded interview with Derrek Lee on WGN Radio early this evening in the run-up to the Cubs/Rockies game. David Kaplan asked Lee about Ryan Theriot, and Lee described him as "a grinder." In that moment, I came up with my own definition of a grinder. It's a guy who plays hard enough to occasionally make you forget that he's not very good.
— Here's what Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts had to say about the Cubs/Dodgers deal:
The Dodgers traded Blake DeWitt and decent prospects Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit today for Ted Lilly, an inconsistent, 34-year-old pitcher in decline, and Ryan Theriot, a 30-year-old infielder who is more expensive and worse than DeWitt. Undoubtedly, Lilly will provide some short-term gain in the rotation, but the Dodgers have actually made themselves worse in the lineup, and are paying for the privilege.
— MLB Network's Harold Reynolds said he didn't understand this trade from the Dodgers' perspective because he didn't believe Ted Lilly was good enough to make a difference in the Dodgers' pursuit of a playoff spot. Then former Cleveland GM John Hart talked about Lilly's ability to eat up innings in pitchers' parks in San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles, and Harold was onboard. Reynolds also said he was surprised that the Cubs didn't get more seasoned pitching talent in return for Lilly, mentioning John Ely and Carlos Monasterios.
— Here's what Baseball Prospectus had to say about Brett Wallach:
He has struck out 92 batters in just 84 2/3 innings at Low-A Great Lakes this year, but that's mitigated by the fact that he turns 22 in December. Still, he was a two-sport star in college and is pitching full-time for the first time in his career, and he's a physical righty with power stuff. Sitting at 91-92 mph with his fastball and touching 94 with it, Wallach complements that heater with a fine changeup, although his slurvy breaking ball needs considerable work, and he has a disturbing tendency to elevate his pitches. Because of his size, stamina, and good mechanics, he'll continue to develop as a starter for now, but his long-term future might be as a power reliever.
BP describes Kyle Smit as a "far more fringy prospect" than Wallach; one who has "barely reached Double-A in his fifth professional season." They conclude that the 22-year-old Smit is a potential middle reliever but that's about it.
— Finally, if Blake DeWitt turns out to be a dog, it won't just be Jim Hendry we can blame. According to Paul Sullivan, we'll also be entitled to rip Greg Maddux.
Cubs GM Jim Hendry gave Maddux some credit for the decision to acquire the Dodgers infielder in the Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot deal. "We've certainly liked [DeWitt] for years," Hendry said. "He's a tough kid. He's 24 years old, so his better days are way ahead of him. … He has a chance to be a complete player. He has to be better offensively. Greg spoke highly of him, when Greg pitched for the Dodgers, and in my discussions with Greg about him a few weeks back."
Twenty-Six Runs per Hour
Sat, 07/31/2010 - 7:45amManager Ryne Sandberg's Iowa Cub lineup SCORED 4 runs in 9 minutes? I LOVE THIS STAT! That translates to 26.6 runs per hour. Thankfully, they suspend games in triple-A rather than just wash them out and make it a do-over. The RPH just might go up when the game resumes in a month.
Manager Lou Piniella's Chicago Cubs GAVE UP runs at a similar velocity. After last night's 17-2 debacle vs the Rockies in an 8th inning that saw 11 consecutive hits (13 total hits but 11 hits with 2 outs) and 12 runs score...that's what I'm talking about, RUNS PER MINUTE. The only problem is that the Chicago National League franchise's role model has been Captain Peter Wrongway Peachfuzz. It was too painful for me to use a stopwatch on that fiasco. The last time the Cubs gave up 12 in one inning was Sept. 24, 1985 vs the Expos. The Expos won that game 17-15 and Expo hat wearing Andre Dawson went 4-6 with 8 rbi and 3 homers. Oddly, a pitcher named Ray Fontenot took the loss for the Cubs. At least those Cubs scored 12 runs over the last 3 innings, which is more than this inept group could claim.
Why can't the I-Cubs just play out their schedule at Wrigley and hide the lame ducks in Des Moines?
As far as the trading deadline ending later this afternoon, the Saturday morning latest says Lilly is still on the block with the Dodgers, Twins, Tigers and Yankees for some reason showing interest. "Minor sniff's" on Xavier Nada and Little Babe Ruth are out there per Ken Rosenthal. Something about interest in DBack Kelly Johnson too. If they wanted him now, it seems they missed the boat since he would have come for less when he was a free agent nobody wanted last off-season. Did Jim Hendry misread the saying as buy-high and sell-low? I hate it when we get stuff bass-ackwards.
and a bit more detail on runs-per-minute after the break...
First the good news...
July 30, 2010 (Albuquerque, NM) - The Iowa Cubs scored four runs in nine minutes in the top of the first inning before rain delay halted play at Isotopes Park tonight. After waiting approximately 90 minutes, the field was ruled unplayable and the Cubs' game against the Albuquerque Isotopes was suspended. The game will be resumed when the Cubs return to Albuquerque on Tuesday, August 31st at 5:00 p.m. Central Time.
The at-bat by at-bat details:
Beautiful...
I-Cubs top 1st: Fuld walks. Barney singles. Scales strikes out. Hoffpauir doubles. Wright homers. LaHair 2-0 count, rain delay.
Ugly...
Rockies Bottom 8th: Sean Marshall pitching. Barmes doubles. Mora singles. Fowler Strikes out. Spilborghs Strikes out. HELL BREAKS LOOSE. Gonzales singles. Tulowitzki doubles. Hawpe doubles. Cashner replaces Marshall. Iannetta triples. Stewart homers. Barmes singles. Mora doubles. Fowler homers. Spilborghs singles. Schlitter replaces Cashner. Gonzalez singles. Tulowitzki doubles. Hawpe walks. Iannetta walks. Stewart flies out.
Andy McPhail snubs Ryne Sandberg
Thu, 07/29/2010 - 6:00pmOrioles President Andy McPhail, of the royal baseball McPhail lineage (grandpa Larry, dad Lee) had a chance to snag another ex-Cub and went another direction today by hiring non-nonsense manager, Buck Showalter. Recent speculation by Tribster, Steve Rosenbloom, had Sandberg on Andy's speed dial but it seems it wasn't so. The O's beat writer for mlb.com said the short list was former O's catcher Rick Dempsey, former Indians manager Eric Wedge and Bobby Valentine, who has recently volunteered his services as the next Cub manager.
Sandberg did add some fuel to the speculation when he was quoted in the Des Moines Register back on June 16th:
“The last time I talked to Andy was during the winter meetings, when we
were on a committee together,” Sandberg said before Monday night’s
Pacific Coast League game against New Orleans at Principal Park. “But
I’d listen if someone called, for sure.”
Since shedding the official Tribune Tower sweatervest worn as the Cubs President at the conclusion of the abysmal 2006 season and finding refuge in the tender clutches of Oriole owner Peter Angelos in June 2007, Andy has stocked the Orioles with ex-Cubs like the Statue of Liberty says (paraphrasing now):
"Give me your near retired, your poor fielders,
Your huddled masses short of breathe rounding third,
The wretched refuse of your teeming minors.
Send these, the homeless once Cubs, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the Orange Oriole door!"
We've all enjoyed his accumulation of cast off ex-Cubs. I shall list the names with Cub ties from the McPhail (Cub) era: Front Office: John Stockstill (Scouting/Farm director, previously O's Director of International Scouting); Manager/Coaches: Dave Trembley (former O's manager, minor league manager for the Cubs 1994-2002), Rick Kranitz (pitching coach), Alan Dunn (bullpen coach); Players: Steve Traschel, Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Rocky Cherry, Scott Moore, Caesar Izturis, Paul Bako, Jake Fox, Luis Montanez, Will Ohman, Rich Hill.
Could you imagine the Chicago media frenzy if McPhail had named Sandberg as the next Oriole Skipper? If one imagines standing in the room where Tom Ricketts puts the phone receiver to his ear, while on the other end of the phone call, Jim Hendry tells the new Cub owner that beloved Ryno's gone orange. THUD.
Hendry on Brink of Trade Deadline Fail
Thu, 07/29/2010 - 5:55pmWith less than 48 hours to go on the trade deadline and the Cubs season over long ago, Hendry seems on the brink of not being able to move any of his overpriced talent.
Well-done sir.
The latest of course is that Derrek Lee wouldn't waive his NTC to go to the Angels who happen to reside in Southern California where he is building a home. As a 10/5 man, he has earned that right, so fair enough. But please don't invoke the love of the city or your teammates because you're kind of screwing them over.
"I think the bottom line is family. I like Chicago, I enjoy my teammates. It was the decision we made."
You may be thinking that he just didn't want to go to the Angels who are pretty much out of it, but according to Bruce Levine, the Rangers came up with an offer as well and they're very well on their way to the playoffs at the moment. I don't know anything about Lee's personel life, but for the $13M he's making this year, it seems like he could overcome the 2-month inconvenience. Since Lee is still having a crap year and the team is obviously moving on past him for 2011, it'd be nice if he was benched for prolonged period of times to start giving whomever the Cubs think might be next year's first basemen some much needed game experience (Colvin, Soriano, Ramirez, Hoffpauir, etc).
- Ted Lilly seemed like a slam dunk to get moved, but teams seem to be balking at picking up his salary. The Cubs should of course just offer to pay most of it, if it can net them a decent pair of prospects, but Hendry still can't figure out how free agent compensation works, so I'm doubtful he'll figure out the idea of sunk costs. The Phillies are of course out now as they picked up Roy Oswalt, leaving the Mets, Twins and Dodgers as the most likely targets, although all seem hesitant at this late hour.
On the other hand, if these teams are so hesitant to pick up his salary or Lee's, both should easily clear waivers and if they don't, dear god Hendry, just let them go and save the money since there's no way in hell you'll offer them arbitration cause you never do that.
- I haven't heard much on the Ryan Theriot front lately past the Rockies and Tigers rumors. Xavier Nady's continued awfulness has nullified his trade value.
So at this moment, we all have the joy of following a terrible team that can't even conduct a proper fire sale. Cubs fever...catch it.
