Bears Draft Study; 2002 to Present with Colts Comparison

I posted this a couple weeks ago in the comments, and have updated it to include a comparison to a top notch frachise that builds through the draft, the Indianapolis Colts.  Read on for the gory details...

 

Grading a draft is tough due to the subjective nature of what contitutes a successful selection. Expectations are different due to round, position, positional depth, team environment, and injuries. A lot of argument can be made over how to measure the success or failure of a pick.

 

For the sake of argument, I am going to judge each of Angelo's draft picks as either a successful or failed pick. I'd like to make a comparison to a good team, but I don't know any team as well as I do this one, so it would be harder to accurately make a determination. I am going to use “TBD” for several players and leave them out of any calculations. A 6^th or 7^th round pick to me has almost no expectations, so I'm going to leave them out of any calculation as well, as any contribution would be a bonus.

 

2009 (4 TBD, 2/3)

3 Jarron Gilbert – TBD (Redshirt)

3 Jauquin Iglesias – TBD (Redshirt)

4 Henry Melton – TBD(Redshirt)

4 DJ Moore - TBD(Redshirt)

5 Johnny Knox – Success (Key Reserve )

5 Marcus Freeman – Failure (Cut)

6 Al Afalava – Success (Starter on a lousy defense, but making contributions)

7 Lance Louis – N/A (Redshirt)

7 Derek Kinder – N/A (Cut)

2008 (3 TBD, 3/4)

1 Chris Williams – TBD (Starting to show potential, but look at the rest of the T drafted before/after)

2 Matt Forte – Success (Based on rookie year alone)

3 Earl Bennett – TBD(Can he even start for the Bears? Starting to show potential)

3 Marcus Harrison – TBD (Key Reserve, but needs to improve)

4 Craig Steltz – Failure (Marginal Depth, not much potential beyond ST)

5 Zack Bowman – Success (Starter who looks to be improving)

5 Kellen Davis – Success (Key Reserve who has great size and potential)

7 Ervin Baldwin – N/A

7 Chester Adams – N/A

7 Joey LaRocque - N/A

7 Kirk Barton - N/A

7 Marcus Monk - N/A

2007 (4/7)

1 Greg Olsen – Success (Starter at TE, but disappointed this season, along with rest of team)

2 Dan Bazuin – Failure (Out of NFL – Injuries, but terrible pick)

3 Garrett Wolfe – Failure (Marginal Reserve – not much beyond ST)

3 Michael Okwo – Failure (Out of NFL – Another awful pick)

4 Josh Beekman – Success (Starter/Key Reserve/Heir to Kreutz?)

5 Kevin Payne – Success (Key Reserve who could succeed if allowed to stay at SS, not bad for 5^th rd)

5 Corey Graham – Success (See Kevin Payne, decent depth, possible potential at Nickel, FS)

7 Trumaine McBride – N/A (had some production when filling in for injury)

7 Aaron Brant – N/A

2006 (3/5)

2 Danieal Manning – Failure (Hard to blame Manning due to position switches, but can't stay on the field unacceptable for 2^nd rd pick)

2 Devin Hester – Success (ProBowl KR, Starting WR? I don't know. Good pick, switch to WR questionable)

3 Dusty Dvoracek – Failure (Out of NFL; Injuries are a culprit, but producion was inconsistent)

4 Jamar Williams – Success (Key Reserve who was slated to replace Briggs)

5 Mark Anderson – Success (Key Reserve is decent dedpth at DE for 5^th rder. What happen to the rookie version?)

6 J.D. Runnels – N/A

6 Tyler Reed - N/A

2005 (2/5)

1 Cedric Benson – Failure (Showing talent with Bengals, but it didn't work in Chicago)

2 Mark Bradley – Failure (Marginal Reserve for KC, but no contribution to Bears)

4 Kyle Orton – Success (Nuff said)

5 Airese Currie – Failure (Out of NFL; guy was track star only)

6 Chris Harris – Success (Starter from 6^th round? Trade him! <torch and pitchforks>)

7 Rod Wilson - N/A

2004 (3/7)

1 Tommie Harris – Success (ProBowl player, but lost his motivation; injuries)

2 Tank Johnson – Failure (Starter talent, but past caught up with him in Chicago)

3 Bernard Berrian – Success (Starter after being a project; current Bears miss him)

4 Nathan Vasher – Success (ProBowl contribution, new contract is a disappointment)

4 Leon Joe – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

5 Claude Harriott – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

5 Craig Krenzel – Failure (Out of NFL, one season being thrown to the wolves)

7 Alfonso Marshall – N/A

2003 (3/6)

1 Michael Haynes – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

1 Rex Grossman - Failure (Starter for a bad team, but didn't live up to first round expectations)

2 Charles Tillman – Success (best corner on team for several seasons)

3 Lance Briggs – Success (Multiple ProBowler)

4 Todd Johnson - Failure (Out of NFL, minor contributor)

4 Ian Scott – Success (Starter/Key Reserve for a few years)

5 Bobby Wade – Failure (Forced into action, but shouldn't have been playing)

5 Justin Gage – Failure (A project that was dumped too soon)

5 Tron LaFavor – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

6 Joe Odom - N/A

6 Brock Forsey – N/A

7 Bryan Anderson – N/A

2002 (2/7)

1 Marc Colombo – Failure (Mainly injuries, Bears gave up too soon, tough call)

3 Roe Williams – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

3 Terrence Metcalf – Failure (Out of NFL, worse than Omiyale?)

4 Alex Brown – Success (Key starter for some good defenses)

5 Bobby Gray – Failure (Marginal Reserve at best)

5 Bryan Knight – Failure (Out of NFL, never contributed)

6 Adrian Peterson – Success (Key Reserve at RB, ST)

6 Jamin Elliott – N/A

6 Bryan Fletcher – N/A

 

 

So that's 19 successes in 41 picks. It's pretty generous in the scoring setup and a lot of the judgments. I don't like what Angelo has done overall. His habit of fixating on and overdrafting marginal players (Bazuin, Manning for example), selecting injured/injury prone players (Williams), and flat our wasting some high round picks (Okwo, Wolfe, need I go on).

 

It's a major disappointment that a new administration will need to improve on greatly. I think we could let the painting elephant make the selections and we'd come out ahead, so the bar has been significantly lowered.

 

I've decided to compare the drafting record of Angelo to a known standard of excellence, Bill Polian of the Indianapolis Colts. Polian built the Super Bowl teams in Buffalo, and after that the Super Bowl team in Carolina. I'll grade out the Colts just like I did with the Bears, although I don't know the depths of the Colts quite as well.

 

 

2009 (3/4, 2 TBD)

1 Donald Brown RB – TBD – Mediocre season with some injuries

2 Fili Moala DT – TBD – Saw limited action as a reserve

3 Jerraud Powers CB – Success – Starter to begin season

4 Austin Collie WR – Success – Has come on as a great 3^rd receiver

4 Terrence Taylor DT – Failure – Cut

6 Curtis Painter QB - N/A

7 Pat MacAfee P – Success – He's their punter. Is that success? Close enough

7 Jamie Thomas T - N/A

2008 (2/4, 1 TBD)

2 Mike Pollak G – Success – Started as a rookie

3 Philip Wheeler OLB – TBD – Starter potential

4 Jacob Tamme TE – Failure – Inactive most of the season, below Santi on depth chart

5 Marcus Howard DE – Failure – Gone after 1 season

6 Tom Santi TE – N/A – Stuck as a backup, but no real success yet

6 Steve Justice C - N/A

6 Mike Hart RB – N/A

6 Pierre Garcon WR – Success – Starting opposite Wayne

7 Jamey Richard C - N/A

2007 (3/9)

1 Anthony Gonzalez WR – Success

2 Tony Ugoh T – Failure – Lost his starting job to 6^th rd pick

3 Dante Hughes CB – Failure – Gone after 2 seasons

3 Quinn Pitcock DT – Failure – Gone after 1 season

4 Brannon Condren DB – Failure – Gone after 1 season

4 Clint Session LB – Success – 2 year starter

5 Roy Hall WR – Failure – Gone after 2 seasons

5 Michael Coe CB – Failure – Gone after 1 season

7 Keyunta Dawson DT – Success – Started last season

2006 (4/7)

1 Joseph Addai RB – Success – Pro Bowler

2 Tim Jennings CB - Failure

3 Freddie Keiaho LB - Failure

5 Michael Toudouze G - Failure

6 Charlie Johnson T – Success

6 Antoine Bethea SS – Success

7 T.J. Rushing CB – Success – Contributing as KR

2005 (3/8)

1 Marlin Jackson DB – Failure – Tough call here

2 Kelvin Hayden DB – Success - Starter

3 Vincent Burns DE – Failure

4 Dylan Gandy G – Success – Starter for part of a season, not bad for 4^th rd pick

4 Matt Giordano DB – Failure

5 Jonathan Welsh DE – Failure

5 Robert Hunt C – Failure

5 Tyjuan Hagler LB – Success – Starter for a few seasons

6 Dave Rayner K - N/A

7 Anthony Davis - N/A

2004 (3/6)

2 Bob Sanders DB – Success – Pro Bowler

3 Ben Hartsock TE - Failure

3 Gilbert Gardner LB - Failure

4 Kendyll Pope LB - Failure

4 Jason David CB – Success – 3 year starter

5 Jake Scott G – Success – 4 year starter

6 Von Hutchins DB - N/A

6 Jim Sorgi QB - N/A

7 David Kimball K - N/A

2003 (4/7)

1 Dallas Clark TE – Success – Pro Bowler

2 Mike Doss SS – Success – Starter for 3 years

3 Donald Strickland FS – Failure

4 Steve Sciullo G – Failure

5 Robert Mathis DE – Success – Pro Bowler

5 Keyon Whiteside LB - Failure

6 Cato June DB - Success – 3 year starter

6 Makoa Freitas T N/A

2002 (3/4)

1 Dwight Freeney DE – Success - Pro Bowler

2 Larry Tripplett DT – Success – Started a couple seasons, also depth

3 Joseph Jefferson CB – Failure – stuck on the team, but no major contributions

4 David Thornton LB – Success – Career starter, 3 years as a Colt

6 David Pugh DT - N/A

6 James Lewis - N/A

6 Brian Allen RB - N/A

7 Josh Mallard DE - N/A

2001 (4/7)

1 Reggie Wayne WR – Success – Pro Bowler

2 Idrees Bashir FS – Success – 4 year starter for Colts

3 Cory Bird DB - Failure

4 Ryan Diem G – Success – Career Starter w/Colts

5 Raymond Walls DB – Failure

6 Jason Doering DB - N/A

7 Rick DeMulling G – Success – Started 3 seasons

2000 (4/5)

1 Rob Morris LB – Success – Starter for 4 years

2 Marcus Washington LB – Success – Career starter, 3 years as a Colt

3 David Macklin DB – Success – Started 2 seasons

4 Josh Williams DT – Success – Started 2 season

5 Matt Johnson - Failure

7 Rob Renes DT - N/A

7 Rodregis Brooks DB - N/A

1999 (4/6)

1 Edgerrin James RB – Success – Pro Bowler

2 Mike Peterson OLB – Success – Started 4 seasons before moving to Jax/ATL

3 Brandon Burlsworth – Failure

4 Paul Miranda DB - Failure

5 Brad Scioli DE – Success – Starter for a couple years, depth otherwise

7 Hunter Smith P – Success – Good punter in 7^th? I call that a success

7 Corey Terry DE - N/A

1998 (3/5, maybe Mmanning should count double)

1 Peyton Manning QB – Success – Hall of Famer

2 Jerome Pathon WR – Success – Started for a few seeasons

3 E.G. Green WR – Failure

4 Steve McKinney G – Success – Started 4 straight years at G

5 Antony Jordan LB – Failure

7 Aaron Taylor G – N/A

7 Cory Gaines – N/A

 

If we remember from above, Angelo is 19/41 (46%) and using the same scoring system Polian is 40/72 (56%). A 10% improvement is significant, but admittedly less than I would have guessed before going through all the picks. But I think it makes sense to go deeper into the above and disect the success and failures of each pick. Judging purely on perception, Angelo stinks with early rounders and Polian just picks Pro Bowlers.

 

Round; Angelo; Polian

1; 2/6 (33%); 8/9 (89%)

2; 3/7 (43%); 11/13 (85%)

3; 2/7 (29%); 2/13 (15%)

4; 6/9 (67%); 8/15 (53%)

5; 6/15 (40%); 4/14 (29%)

 

The above shows that Angelo really does suck with early picks, while Polian simply doesn't miss. It also shows that while Angelo can find some gems in the later rounds, he's really not much better than Polian at that. To compound that issue, Angleo's successes in later rounds display the lower ceiling of mid round picks when compared to first and second round picks.

Here's a list of Bears and Colts Pro Bowlers selected by Angelo and Polian:

Angelo (5): Kreutz, Harris, Briggs, Vasher, Hester

Polian (10): Manning, James, Addai, Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis, June, Sanders, Bethea

Other Bears from 98-present: James “Big Cat” Williams, Ruben Brown, Booker, Ted Washington, Urlacher, Mike Brown, Azumah, Glyn Milburn, Ayanbadejo, Larry Whigham, Gould

Other Colts from 98-present: Faulk, Harrison, Glenn, Dilger, Saturday, Vanderjagt

 

Polian has 4 more drafts than Angleo, but he has 6 Pro Bowlers from the first Round out of 9 picks. Only Harris was a first round pick for Angelo in 8 drafts to make the Pro Bowl. Granted he traded down a lot, but Polian would seemingly have kept the pick and selected a Pro Bowler. I know the Pro Bowl isn't the ultimate measure of a player, but for these purposes it's a clear and simple way to do so.

 

Another way to measure a team's drafting ability is to count how many players on the roster have come via the draft. The below is a real quick count and includes some players on IR, so the count isn't out of 53:

2009 Bears: 33

2009 Colts: 36

 

Given that the Bears are 6-9 and the Colts are 14-1, I don't know that counting players on the roster is a real good way to figure this. Counting starters is difficult, because a starter on the Bears would probably not start on the Colts. The only Bears who might replace a starter on the Colts are <crickets>, Urlacher, Briggs, Tilllman, Gould, Maynard, Hester (KR/PR, not WR).

 

In conclusion, I think it's fair to say that if the Bears had two or three more Pro Bowl caliber players from the draft, Lovie Smith wouldn't be the topic of a coaching decision. Angelo deserves as much blame for where the Bears are as anyone. It's been said that Angelo is a “concensus builder,” only making decisions once everyone agrees on it. I say that's for the birds. He's playing it safe so that he can tell everyone that Lovie signed off on the picks to take away any excuses from the coaching staff. Hopefully, whenever a caoching change is made, a new GM comes along that can get some first and second round picks right.